Working Papers
Tuition, Transfer, and Turmoil: Understanding the Dynamics of For-Profit College Shutdowns (Job Market Paper)[PDF]
Between 2015 and 2018, several of the nation’s largest for-profit college chains abruptly collapsed, disrupting the education of over 200,000 students. In the year before failure, these schools raised tuition by nearly $1,000, eight times their typical annual increase, while most continuing students stayed put until the day of closure. This striking inelasticity reveals high switching costs that leave students “locked in,” unable to escape even as prices spike. After closure, students overwhelmingly reallocate to nearby community colleges, highlighting the public sector’s role as a safety net. To interpret these dynamics and design effective policy, I estimate a dynamic college-choice model in which forward-looking students face heterogeneous switching costs and form expectations about potential closures. The model explains both the muted response to pre-closure tuition hikes and the chaotic, forced transfers that follow. Counterfactuals show that tuition freezes alone provide limited protection and can even backfire, keeping prices low and drawing new students into failing schools. By contrast, policies that lower switching costs, such as universal credit transfer or targeted transfer grants, and increase transparency about institutional distress generate large welfare gains. These interventions encourage proactive, voluntary transfers, curbing the disruptive wave of last-minute moves when schools collapse. My results show that protecting students requires mobility and information, not just price regulation. Reducing switching costs tackles the root problem, preventing predatory pricing and minimizing the fallout when higher education institutions fail.
Difference in Physician Responses to New Technology and New Information by Patient Race: Evidence from Drug-Eluting Stents (with Jonathan Ketcham & Chad Stecher) [PDF ]
We investigate how physicians’ responses to new technology and new information differ by patient race. Specifically, we leverage a unique data set that captures the introduction of drug–eluting stents (DES) for coronary percutaneous interventions (PCIs) in the US in 2003 and new quality concerns about DES announced in 2006. Our unconditional analysis show that overall, Black patients are no less likely to receive DES than White patients; however, analysis conditional on clinical risk factors shows that physicians are systematically less likely to provide DES to higher–risk Black patients and instead provide the older bare–metal stents. We find no evidence that physician experience explains these differences: although higher experience is associated with greater likelihood of DES recept, Black patients on average are treated by more experienced physicians. We also find no evidence supporting “statistical” discrimination regarding concerns about patient adherence to complementary medication: while provision of DES fell in 2006 following the new information about the role of adherence in preventing mortality, the decrease was similar between White and Black patients. Finally, these results are not explained by patients being treated by different hospitals or different physicians or having different insurance coverage.
Overhead Costs: The Impact of Airplane Noise on Academic Achievement (with Jasdeep Mandia) [Awaiting Permission to Release]
Environmental noise is a pervasive and understudied input in the education production function, with potential implications for academic achievement and equity. This paper examines the impact of airport noise on student achievement by exploiting quasi-random changes in flight paths around Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport. We assemble student-level English-Language Arts (ELA) and math test scores for grades 4–8 from 2012 to 2017 and link them to school-level measures of ambient noise exposure before and after the FAA’s 2015 route realignment. Using a difference-in-differences design we find that a 1 dB increase in average noise reduces both ELA and math performance 1.13% and 1.01% of a standard deviation respectively. These results inform policy debates on school siting, sound-proofing investments, and flight-path management to mitigate academic losses.
Work In Progress
Does Success Beget Success? The Impact of Arizona's Results-Based Funding Program on Student Achievement
I examine Arizona’s Results-Based Funding program which awards schools additional per-pupil funding based on previous academic performance. High and low-income schools were given an additional $225 and $400 per-pupil respectively for being in the top 10% of their respective student performance distribution on the Arizona AZMerit standardized math and English language arts tests. I implement a sharp regression discontinuity design to identify the impact of this funding on student outcomes by exploiting the quasi-experimental variation provided by this funding cutoff. Leveraging student-level data I estimate the impact of this additional funding on outcomes, focusing on the heterogeneity across student demographics.
Striking a Balance with Income-Driven Repayment: Default Protection vs. Labor Market Distortions (with Jacob French & Spencer Perry)
Student loans play a critical role in increasing accessibility to secondary education for students in the United States; however, borrowers are much more likely to default on student loans than other forms of debt. To address high levels of delinquency and default, income-driven repayment (IDR) provides insurance against earnings risk by lowering monthly payments to a share of discretionary income. In this project we aim to first empirically quantify the extent to which the availability of IDR affects college major decisions, initial career choices, labor supply, and the likelihood of defaulting on student loan debt using several data sets from the National Center for Education Statistics. Initial descriptive analysis suggests that students who enroll in IDR are less likely to enter delinquency but are more likely to choose low-paying careers conditional on a rich set of observable characteristics and academic outcomes. Our research design combines reduced-form analysis with a structural model of repayment plan and career choice that incorporates earnings risk and information frictions about the availability of IDR.
Impact of Medication Adherence on Healthcare Utilization - Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial (with Chad Stecher & Tyler Williams)
This project examines how improving medication adherence can affect healthcare use among patients with chronic illnesses. We study data from Arizona’s Medicare provider combined with a randomized trial in which patients were encouraged to track daily pill-taking through a mobile app. The intervention created a verifiable record of adherence and led to measurable improvements in prescription refills and continuity of coverage. Preliminary evidence also points to fewer acute healthcare encounters for participants, suggesting that simple, low-cost behavioral tools may help improve patient outcomes and reduce overall system utilization.
Accountability and Access: The Impact of School Quality Grades on Student Transfers and Voucher Uptake (with Esteban Aucejo & Vibhuti Mehta)
This project uses student-level data from the Arizona Department of Education to study how information about school quality influences family decisions. We examine how changes in school letter grades affect the likelihood of students transferring to other schools, and how these quality measures interact with Arizona’s 2023 introduction of universal school choice vouchers. Using a regression discontinuity design around grade cutoffs, we identify the causal impact of higher quality ratings on both student transfers and voucher uptake. Early evidence suggests that publicly available school ratings play a meaningful role in shaping school choice, with families showing a greater willingness to leave lower-rated schools.
Pre-Ph.D. Publications
Molfenter, T., Knudsen, H. K., Brown, R., Jacobson, N., Horst, J., Van Etten, M., Kim, J., Haram, E., Collier, E., Starr, S., Toy, A., & Madden, L. (2017). Test of a workforce development intervention to expand opioid use disorder treatment pharmacotherapy prescribers: protocol for a cluster randomized trial. Implementation Science, 12, 1-9. [PDF]
Molfenter, T., Brown, R., O’Neill, A., Kopetsky, E., & Toy, A. (2018). Use of telemedicine in addiction treatment: current practices and organizational implementation characteristics. International Journal of Telemedicine and Applications, 2018(1), 3932643. [PDF]
Knudsen, H. K., Brown, R., Jacobson, N., Horst, J., Kim, J. S., Collier, E., Starr, S., Madden, L., Haram, E., Toy, A., & Molfenter, T. (2019). Physicians’ satisfaction with providing buprenorphine treatment. Addiction Science & Clinical Practice, 14, 1-7. [PDF]
White, V. M., Molfenter, T., Gustafson, D. H., Horst, J., Greller, R., Gustafson, D. H., & Toy, A. (2020). NIATx-TI versus typical product training on e-health technology implementation: a clustered randomized controlled trial study protocol. Implementation Science, 15, 1-12. [PDF]
Jacobson, N., Horst, J., Wilcox-Warren, L., Toy, A., Knudsen, H. K., Brown, R., ... & Molfenter, T. (2020). Organizational facilitators and barriers to medication for opioid use disorder capacity expansion and use. The journal of behavioral health services & research, 47(4), 439-448. [PDF]
Molfenter, T., Kim, H., Kim, J. S., Kisicki, A., Knudsen, H. K., Horst, J., Brown, R., Madden, L., Toy, A., Haram, E., & Jacobson, N. (2023). Enhancing use of medications for opioid use disorder through external coaching. Psychiatric Services, 74(3), 265-271. [PDF]